Water use vs groundwater recharge — Yucatán Peninsula
Interactive · Water Balance · Yucatán Peninsula · MuSIASEM · 2015–2030
This is the core output visualisation from the doctoral research on water societal metabolism in the Yucatán Peninsula. It puts supply and demand on the same axis: how much water naturally recharges the karst aquifer through rainfall infiltration each year, and how much the economy — agriculture, tourism, industry, households — extracts from it.
The two lines can be read like a scissors: recharge is falling under most climate projections (around 23% less by 2030 under central estimates), while demand is growing as the economy shifts toward water-intensive activities. The point where demand approaches or exceeds recharge is not a theoretical endpoint but a near-term planning constraint in some sub-regions.
How to read it
The balance view shows the gap between supply and demand by sub-region and scenario. The scenario explorer lets you toggle between different combinations of economic development pathway and climate trajectory. Negative balances — demand exceeding recharge — are shown in red.
Methods
Recharge estimated from a monthly water balance model calibrated against 40 years of historical data, then projected using four downscaled General Circulation Models. Demand estimated via MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism) using employment structure, water intensity coefficients, and demographic projections.
Full methodology in: Rodríguez-Huerta, E., Rosas-Casals, M. & Hernández-Terrones, L.M. (2019). Journal of Cleaner Production, 235, 272–287. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.310
